"Will the Supreme Court Strike Down Obamacare?"
In the past few weeks the coverage has centered around how the court would find the law constitutional. Some commentators have predicted an 8-1 vote in favor of the law, while others have predicted that the conservative Justice Scalia would be a swing vote in favor of upholding the law. Just last Thursday, Reuters singled out two of the conservative leaning justices who were likely to vote to uphold the law which would assure its constitutionality. It seemed that law and its supporters could sleep sound, assured that the Supreme Court wouldn't strike down the landmark law.
However, the first day of oral arguments on the law seems to have shaken everyone's confidence that the law would be upheld. On the first day of arguments, many of the justices seemed to be hostile to the government's claim that the individual mandate to buy insurance was a "tax". This is important because one of the government's arguments is that the individual mandate is constitutional exercise of congress's authority because congress has very broad power to tax. The hostility of the court to the argument could be seen as a rejection of one of the government's strongest justifications for the mandate.
Day two of the arguments focused on the justification of the law under the commerce clause. The government argued that the nature of healthcare was unique and that congress could regulate insurance coverage under the interstate commerce clause. But many of the justices seemed uncomfortable with the idea that the government could force an individual to participate in an economic activity, with some justices questioning if there would be any limit on the government's power if the court were to uphold the individual mandate.
The court will hold one more day of arguments focusing on whether the individual mandate can be removed from the law along with some questions about the Medicaid expansion. The justices are expected to rule on the issue sometime in the summer.
Transcript of Day 1 of Oral Arguments: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/27/us/27scotus-transcript.html?ref=policy
Transcript of Day 2: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74537.html